Προβλέπουμε ότι οι παγκόσμιοι όγκοι εμπορευματοκιβωτίων θα αυξηθούν μεταξύ -0,5% και 0,5% το 2023 και μεταξύ 3,0% και 4,0% το 2024. Συνδυαστικά, ο όγκος των εμπορευματοκιβωτίων κεφαλής και του περιφερειακού εμπορίου είναι ελαφρώς καλύτερα. Προβλέπουμε ανάπτυξη μεταξύ 0,0% και 1,0% το 2023 και μεταξύ 3,5% και 4,5% το 2024.
Κατά το πρώτο εξάμηνο του 2023, οι λωρίδες επιστροφής και περιφερειακού εμπορίου είχαν ελαφρώς χειρότερη απόδοση από ό,τι είχαμε προβλέψει προηγουμένως. Ωστόσο, οι συναλλαγές κεφαλαίων έχουν ελαφρώς καλύτερες επιδόσεις και οι συνολικοί όγκοι στην πραγματικότητα ανταποκρίνονται στην τελευταία μας πρόβλεψη τον Μάιο.
We forecast that global container volumes will grow by between -0.5% and 0.5% in 2023, and by between 3.0% and 4.0% in 2024. Combined, head-haul and regional trade volumes are faring slightly better. We predict growth of between 0.0% and 1.0% in 2023 and between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2024.
During the first half of 2023, the back-haul and regional trade lanes have performed slightly worse than we previously predicted. However, head-haul trades have performed slightly better and total volumes did in fact match our last forecast in May.
Unfortunately, we believe that the rest of the year will follow the same slightly worse pattern. Compared to our previous base case, our total volume growth forecast for 2023 has been lowered 0.5 percentage points whereas the growth forecast for combined head-haul and regional trade volumes remains unchanged.
For 2024, we have lowered our growth forecast for both total volumes and combined head-haul and regional trade volumes by 2.5 percentage points compared to our previous base case scenario.
Like our low case scenario from our Q2 2023 report, we now believe that the volume recovery in many key trades will be delayed until 2024 due to tight financial conditions for businesses and consumers.
In its July 2023 report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly increased its estimate for GDP growth for 2023 to 3.0% while maintaining it at 3.0% for 2024. The increase in 2023 mostly impacts the Europe & Mediterranean, North America, and South & Central America areas.
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