Diaplous Weekly Intelligence Report, covering major developments within the week 31 Dec 25 – 07 Jan 26.
For your reference, please see below the highlights of this week’s report:
Europe & Mediterranean:
• Russia–Ukraine New Year strike pattern raises infrastructure and logistics risk.
• Baltic Sea subsea cable incidents keep hybrid-threat alert levels elevated.
• Greece halts flight operations after aviation radio-frequency disruption.
• Snow and ice disrupt Dutch aviation and rail movements around Amsterdam.
• Gale-force winds in the Aegean drive sailing restrictions and island supply delays.
• Runway disruption in northern Italy strands passengers and cancels flights.
• Berlin power-cable fire treated as suspected arson highlights urban infrastructure vulnerability.
• Swiss New Year’s Eve resort fire triggers cross-border emergency response and transport strain.
• France tightens food-import checks amid farmer unrest, raising clearance friction.
• United Kingdom Channel small-boat arrivals sustain pressure for tighter enforcement.
• Serbia secures temporary US waiver enabling restart planning for its only oil refinery.
• Europe cold snap drives fatalities and multi-network transport disruption.
Middle East & Indian Ocean Region:
• Yemen: Southern coalition crisis and Aden frictions raise port-access volatility.
• Iran: Currency-driven unrest elevates short-notice disruption risk.
• Somali Basin: Reported hijack of a Chinese fishing vessel signals renewed piracy intent.
• Oil: OPEC+ keeps output policy steady as Middle East risk premium persists.
• Pakistan/China – Joint statement emphasizes militant threat and Gwadar-linked security focus.
• Qatar/Egypt: LNG cooperation memorandum underlines shifting regional supply-chain positioning.
• Regional security: Gulf Shield 2026 exercise reflects heightened readiness around Gulf approaches.
• NAVAREA IX – Live-firing and hazard warnings require routing discipline.
• Metocean – IMD high-seas bulletins flag squally weather and higher sea-state risk.
• Red Sea/Suez: Early-2026 transits signal cautious reassessment of the corridor.
• Sri Lanka: Port of Colombo records 2025 throughput high, reinforcing hub-role competition.
West Africa:
• Ghana: Bulk cargo disruption warnings at Tema point to near-term berthing and clearance delays.
• Nigeria: New tax laws entering into force raise shipping cost and clearance-friction risk in Lagos ports.
• Nigeria: Cocaine seizure at Apapa Port likely to tighten boarding and inspection posture.
• Nigeria: High-casualty market raid in Niger State underlines inland-to-port logistics volatility.
• Nigeria: Military convoy ambush in Borno signals sustained militant capability against ground lines of communication.
• West Africa: US entry restrictions taking effect drive reciprocal measures and complicate crew-change planning.
• Guinea: Supreme Court confirmation of election result signals tighter political control with localized disruption risk.
• Gambia: Migrant boat capsize triggers renewed search-and-rescue burden on coastal services.
• Senegal: Sovereign-debt sentiment improves as investors refocus on International Monetary Fund pathway.
North Africa:
• Egypt signs LNG supply MoU with Qatar for summer 2026.
• Sudan military says it intercepted a drone attack targeting Merowe Dam.
• Algeria replaces the central bank governor by presidential decree.
• Tunisia reports fatality during border anti-smuggling interception in the Remada sector.
• Egypt prepares for Rafah crossing reopening under Gaza ceasefire framework.
• Morocco rolls out IGOC 2026 foreign-exchange framework.
Libya:
• State oil sector reports decade-high average crude output in 2025.
• UN mission urges de-escalation as election body leadership dispute resurfaces.
• National telecom network reports sustained cyberattack activity.
• The Central Bank meets exchange companies on foreign-currency supply and transfer activation.
• Audit authority report highlights elevated public debt and sizeable sovereign-asset base.
• State oil corporation says it cut gas flaring by ~100 million cubic feet per day via projects.
Asia:
• North Korea conducts hypersonic missile test as regional signalling sharpens.
• Western Japan earthquake triggers short-notice transport disruption, reinforcing resilience planning.
• Taiwan maintains high alert after People’s Republic of China drills, maritime response remains activated.
• Taiwan says People’s Republic of China war games sought to erode external support, reinforcing hybrid-pressure risk.
• South Korea and China signal relationship reset intent, with potential trade and operating-environment effects.
• China and Pakistan reaffirm economic corridor cooperation amid security focus and shifting diplomatic balance.
• ReCAAP ISC weekly update reports no new piracy or armed-robbery incidents, but urges sustained vigilance.
• Taiwan east-coast grounding refloated and towed in, underscoring winter monsoon approach risk.
• Bangladesh Navy foils major sea-trafficking attempt in the Bay of Bengal.
• South China Sea search and rescue case underscores small-craft casualty exposure and coordination demands.
