Diaplous Weekly Intelligence Report, covering major developments within the week 26 Nov – 03 Dec, 2025.
For your reference, please see below the highlights of this week’s report:
Europe & Mediterranean:
• Black Sea: Ukrainian naval drones disable two Russian ‘shadow fleet’ oil tankers near Türkiye.
• Black Sea: Third tanker MIDVOLGA-2 hit as Türkiye condemns attacks on commercial shipping.
• Black Sea: War-risk premiums and regional diplomacy react to tanker strikes.
• Eastern Mediterranean: Lebanon and Cyprus sign long-delayed sea border and gas zone deal.
• Mediterranean Sea: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Neptune Strike drills intensify air and naval activity around Italy.
• Black Sea: President Putin threatens to curb Ukraine’s sea access after tanker drone attacks.
• Türkiye: Sharp drop in Russian Urals imports shifts crude trade patterns.
• Greece: Farmer roadblocks and planned port and airport closures threaten logistics.
• Iberian Peninsula: Sines Terminal XXI strike notice points to mid-December container disruption.
• Mediterranean states accelerate talks on basin-wide nitrogen oxides (NOx) Emission Control Area for shipping.
Middle East & Indian Ocean Region:
• The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies (OPEC+) keeps output steady while unveiling new capacity rules.
• Maersk prepares a gradual return to Red Sea and Suez routing.
• Red Sea risk: insurance and war-risk premiums stay elevated despite lull in attacks.
• Iran–International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) standoff deepens, raising sanctions and Strait of Hormuz risk.
• Yemen peace track shows tentative movement as United Nations (UN) envoy tests new de-escalation formula.
• Somali piracy threat remains elevated despite dhow liberation off Socotra.
• Cyclone Ditwah disrupts Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka shipping.
• Houthi finances under strain as militia renews threats toward Saudi Arabia and Red Sea interests.
West Africa:
• Equatorial Guinea kidnapping on Portugal-flagged LPG tanker off Mbini.
• Gulf of Guinea: updated MISTO confirms persistent Niger Delta-driven threat.
• Senegal: Russian-linked tanker Mersin damaged by external explosions off Dakar.
• Nigeria: Lagos port operations disrupted by truckers’ protest over alleged extortion.
• Guinea-Bissau: post-coup transition tests Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) crisis-management capacity.
• Nigeria: defence minister resignation amid security emergency and mass kidnappings.
North Africa:
• Egypt: Dollar Treasury bill (T-bill) auction seeks to ease foreign currency pressure.
• Egypt: Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZONE) and Gwadar explore new Suez–Arabian Sea logistics corridor.
• Morocco: Youth-led Gen Z 212 protests sustain domestic pressure.
• Algeria: Sonatrach raises December LPG benchmarks on tighter supply.
• Morocco: Dakhla Atlantic port moves into new phase with Canary Islands mission.
• Tunisia: Mass jail terms for opposition figures deepen political risk.
Libya:
• Ten-country statement presses Libyan actors on UN roadmap.
• UN Security Council renews Libya arms-embargo framework.
• International Criminal Court (ICC) custody of El Hishri reinforces accountability track.
• Misrata Free Zone and Mitiga upgrades tighten the logistics chain.
• Fiber rollout and National Oil Corporation (NOC) governance debate reshape infrastructure risk.
• NOC fuel-import tender mechanism may reshape fuel logistics.
• Transit corridors project advances as first Chinese ‘transit trade’ ship calls Misrata Free Zone.
• Libyan Export Development Authority (LEDA) launches subsidised Africa shipping line.
Asia:
• Cyclone Ditwah disrupts ports and coastal traffic on India’s east coast.
• China–Philippines tensions spike again around Scarborough Shoal.
• Allied naval drills expand footprint in the South China Sea.
• People’s Liberation Army (PLA) activity around Taiwan remains elevated with fresh median line crossings.
• Philippines clears Verbena related sea restrictions but backlogs linger.
• Philippine forces sharpen maritime law enforcement after cyanide fishing incident.
• New analysis underscores sharp rise in piracy and sea robbery across Asia.
• Spot container rates ease on Asia–Europe trades after six week rally.
• China–Japan confrontation around Senkaku Islands raises new East China Sea tensions.
• Deadly Asia floods disrupt coastal infrastructure in Indonesia and Sri Lanka.
