๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ง ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฑ
The European benchmark ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐๐บ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต, following the rest of the energy mix up as more market operators return from the summer break.
๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ด๐ฎ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฒ due to low storage levels, strong Asian LNG demand, expectations of reduced Russian LNG supply from 2027, and the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, increasing concerns over winter gas availability. The tighter gas market makes gas-fired power generation more expensive, thereby supporting carbon prices through fuel switching to coal.
On the power side, Franceโs nuclear outages are expected to increase once again this week, with around 10% of the nuclear fleet offline due to heat-related cooling constraints and additional maintenance shutdowns. ๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ณ๐๐ฟ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐น๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒโ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ, creating a larger supply gap that could partially be covered by flexible thermal generation sources, thereby supporting carbon.
Finally, with the compliance deadline being in just over one month, late compliance buyers could further push EUAs upwards.
Prices went to test multiple times the monthly high last Friday in a rather short boost of volatility but then resigned and dropped by more than one euro. This morning, a new monthly maximum was reached, and the market could soon be testing its next resistance level of 85.00 EUR/t.
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