𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐛 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐦 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐔 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐱
The European benchmark 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝘅𝗶𝗺𝘂𝗺 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵, following the rest of the energy mix up as more market operators return from the summer break.
𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲 due to low storage levels, strong Asian LNG demand, expectations of reduced Russian LNG supply from 2027, and the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, increasing concerns over winter gas availability. The tighter gas market makes gas-fired power generation more expensive, thereby supporting carbon prices through fuel switching to coal.
On the power side, France’s nuclear outages are expected to increase once again this week, with around 10% of the nuclear fleet offline due to heat-related cooling constraints and additional maintenance shutdowns. 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗳𝘂𝗿𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲’𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲, creating a larger supply gap that could partially be covered by flexible thermal generation sources, thereby supporting carbon.
Finally, with the compliance deadline being in just over one month, late compliance buyers could further push EUAs upwards.
Prices went to test multiple times the monthly high last Friday in a rather short boost of volatility but then resigned and dropped by more than one euro. This morning, a new monthly maximum was reached, and the market could soon be testing its next resistance level of 85.00 EUR/t.
For further analysis, please contact our team at 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐧@𝐛𝐫𝐬𝐛𝐫𝐨𝐤𝐞𝐫𝐬.𝐜𝐨𝐦
