Highlights of this week’s report:
Europe & Mediterranean:
• EU publishes legal basis to phase out Russian gas imports.
• Hungary to challenge EU Russian gas import ban, legal uncertainty risk rises.
• Germany warns of nationwide public transport strikes, potential knock-on effects for port logistics.
• UK authorities order a Russian cargo ship away from Bristol Channel cable routes.
• Ireland steps up protection posture around subsea energy links.
• Russia strikes multiple Ukrainian cities, sustaining risk to northwest Black Sea port-side operations.
• US share of Europe’s LNG imports rises, terminal-slot competition and weather sensitivity persist.
• US LNG cargo to Ukraine routed via Greece in March, highlighting terminal and pipeline dependence.
• Severe Atlantic weather forces carriers to hold vessels, disrupting schedules into Europe.
• EU prepares a plan to strengthen shipbuilding, port security, and supply-chain resilience.
• Turkey issues open-ended NAVTEX objections over Aegean research activity, while Greece pushes back.
Middle East & Indian Ocean Region:
• Strait of Hormuz drill signaling and denial keep short-notice transit risk elevated.
• EU IRGC listing and Iranian retaliation warnings raise regional policy risk.
• New US sanctions on Iranian officials tighten compliance and counterparty risk.
• UKMTO summary report flags sustained electronic interference across the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, and Central Red Sea.
• UN reports seizure of telecom equipment in Sanaa, adding friction to Yemen operations.
• CTF-150 command transition may shift boarding and patrol emphasis in the Arabian Sea.
• Saudi and Oman navies conclude bilateral exercise, reinforcing visible naval presence.
• US-Iran nuclear talks venue shifts to Oman, de-escalation signals reduce but do not remove volatility.
• Armed boats attempt to intercept commercial vessel off Oman, Strait of Hormuz risk rises.
• Suez Canal Authority highlights first transit of a mega container ship, signalling capacity confidence.
• Armed boats attempt to intercept a commercial vessel off Oman, Strait of Hormuz risk rises.
• UKMTO weekly piracy report reinforces anti-piracy posture for Gulf of Aden and wider Indian Ocean.
West Africa:
• Burkina Faso dissolves political parties, tightening junta control.
• Niger airport attack raises diplomatic friction and near-term corridor risk.
• Liberia recalls port reform bills after backlash.
• Drone-backed militants raid Nigerian army base, signalling escalation risk.
• Ivory Coast moves to buy unsold cocoa stocks as price slump slows exports.
• Ghana-hosted regional security talks end with renewed cooperation push.
• Guinea-Bissau junta releases opposition leader amid regional pressure.
• Nigerian forces kill senior Boko Haram commander in Borno raid.
North Africa:
• Saif al-Islam Gaddafi killed, Libya political balance shifts.
• Morocco deploys army as floods force evacuations.
• Tunisia extends the state of emergency through 2026.
• Central Mediterranean winter crossings show rising losses.
• Egypt’s drone deployment near Sudan border raises escalation sensitivity.
• Morocco to open Nador West Med port in Q4 2026.
Libya:
• Libya and Hungary advance the energy cooperation framework.
• Libya and European Union discuss Mediterranean security cooperation.
• United Nations resumes governance and security dialogue in Tripoli.
• Libya signals gas export expansion plans toward Europe.
• Bad weather halts operations at multiple Libyan oil export terminals.
• Zawiya clashes underscore volatility along the northwest coast.
Asia:
• ASEAN foreign ministers focus on the South China Sea and Myanmar ahead of leaders’ talks.
• China steps up patrol activity near Scarborough Shoal as Manila alleges harassment.
• Taiwan showcases maritime-focused readiness as drills emphasize rapid response to pressure.
• China coast guard patrol tempo around Senkaku/Diaoyu remains near-daily, raising interaction risk.
• Myanmar election claims add volatility as conflict dynamics and legitimacy disputes persist.
• Japan deploys troops as record snowfall disrupts transport and raises port-side delay risk.
• Taiwan urges trade focus on democracies as China ties remain politically constrained.
• India forecast to see a hotter, drier February, elevating disruption and demand-side risk.
• Thai military says seized Cambodian scam compound shows large-scale transnational fraud footprint.
• China forecasts multiple February cold waves, raising disruption risk for ports and coastal shipping.
• Indonesia warns of up to 4-meter waves in multiple sea areas, raising small-craft and ferry disruption risk.
